Will the mass production of N-type batteries bring about new changes?

In recent years, the popularity of N-type photovoltaic cell technology has continued to rise, and enterprises have officially opened the "N-type era" in 2022.

Compared with the previous round of battery technology cycle, N-type battery technology routes are diversified, mainly including TOPCon, HJT and IBC. Vertically integrated and specialized battery companies have become the "protagonists behind the scenes" in the mass production layout in the N-type technology direction earlier.

In January 2022, the vertically integrated enterprise represented JinkoSolar in the first phase of the 16GW N-type TOPCon battery project in Hefei, 8GW, to be put into production. It is expected that the battery capacity of this technology will reach 16GW in 2022.

JinkoSolar's production expansion action has attracted great attention, but there is also a small episode. In mid-March 2022, it was reported that JinkoSolar's N-type TOPCon efficiency did not meet expectations, thus suspending the second phase of the TOPCon project. Then JinkoSolar responded: The rumors are untrue.

Another leading company that has started large-scale N-type battery expansion is Trina Solar. In response to the Suqian 8GW TOPCon cell project mentioned above, Trina Solar said that the capacity expansion of the new 8GW TOPCon cell will, on the one hand, enhance the company's self-production capacity for advanced high-efficiency solar cells and meet the downstream market demand for 210+N-type high-efficiency modules. The growing demand, on the other hand, will also accelerate the commercialization of the industry from P-type to N-type.

In February and March 2022, JA Solar and Canadian Solar successively disclosed the news of the large-scale mass production of N-type battery modules. JA Technology told reporters that in the promotion of integrated production capacity, the Ningjin 1.3GW battery project adopts tunnel oxide technology (the technical principle is similar to TOPCon). At present, it is GW-level expansion, and it will be further expanded when the new technology reduces costs and matures. In addition, the company's HJT pilot line has entered the stage of installation and commissioning.

Canadian Solar announced at the N-type photovoltaic technology forum that it will focus on building an N-type TOPCon module, which will enter mass production in the fourth quarter, and will launch a new HJT roof module in April.

In addition, the professional battery leader Tongwei Co., Ltd. has successively put into production the 1GW HJT pilot line and the 1GW TOPCon pilot line in 2021. On April 1, 2022, it announced a total investment of 12 billion yuan. The project plan is to invest in a 32GW high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell project.

In response to the above investment plan, Tongwei said that the company has made large-scale R&D investment in new battery technology fields such as HJT and TOPCon and achieved leading R&D results. In the future, large-scale mass production of new battery technology will be introduced in a timely manner to further promote the development trend of large-size and thin-film, and consolidate the company's competitiveness in the field of solar cells.

Different from the above two technical routes, IBC technology has also attracted much attention due to its higher conversion efficiency and the continuous expansion of advantages of stackable processes.

Southwest Securities Research Report pointed out that Aixu's research and development of N-type ABC battery technology is based on IBC battery technology. A person from the Investor Relations Department of Aixu Co., Ltd. said that the company's 300MW ABC test line is currently being tested, and at the same time, it is preparing for the 6.5GW production capacity in Zhuhai. It is expected that large-scale mass production will be achieved in the third quarter.

It is worth mentioning that LONGi, the "top photovoltaic brother", has research reserves in N-type TOPCon, HJT and other technical directions, and has repeatedly broken the world record of related cell conversion efficiency. In March 2022, LONGi announced a 10 billion investment plan, of which the 30GW high-efficiency monocrystalline battery project with an annual output has attracted much attention from the outside world. However, the news of LONGi's new battery technology direction for large-scale mass production has not been announced for a long time, and it is reported that it may "go off the beaten path". LONGi revealed to reporters that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the company is expected to achieve mass production of the new battery technology.

According to the "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2021 Edition)" data, in 2021, the new domestic mass production lines will still be dominated by PERC cell production lines, and the market share of N-type cells (mainly including HJT and TOPCon cells) is about 3%.

Obviously, this data will be expected to be rewritten in 2022. Changjiang Securities predicts that the new N-type capacity of the photovoltaic industry will exceed 90GW in 2022, of which more than 70GW will be owned by leading companies, accounting for more than 80%.

According to the analysis of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, the current mainstream TOPCon, HJT, IBC and other batteries have good development prospects. Among the three, TOPCon has a relatively low cost at this stage, has potential for future efficiency, and can be transformed based on the existing huge production capacity. Leading enterprises will continue to explore, and this year will usher in the first year of industrialized mass production.