TOPCon? Heterojunction?

Recently, Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to invest 12 billion yuan to build a 32GW high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project in Tianfu New District, Meishan, Sichuan. The project will be implemented in two phases. The first phase of the 16GW battery project has an investment of about 6 billion yuan, and strives to be put into production before the end of December 2023. The second phase of the 16GW battery project will be launched according to the agreement.

When the choice of heterojunction and TOPCon has entered a crossroads, does Tongwei choose heterojunction or TOPCon for this investment? It has become the focus of attention that the photovoltaic industry and related investment institutions need to understand.

TOPCon, Heterojunction at the Crossroads

TOPCon and HJT are two mainstream emerging battery technology routes, and their laboratory conversion efficiencies are constantly being refreshed. Unlike Huasheng, Risen Energy, Akcome, etc., which focus on heterojunctions, and Jolywood, Jinko, Tianhe, etc., which focus on TOPCon, Tongwei has always been walking on two legs in the choice of heterojunction and TOPCon. .

At the end of 2021, Tongwei announced that based on the research and development progress of its heterojunction, the company has built a new 1GW heterojunction pilot line and achieved a ramp-up in production capacity. The company will focus on improving efficiency under the conditions of large-scale mass production of heterojunction The goal of cost reduction is to carry out continuous research and development.

And Tongwei has not given up on TOPCon technology. In the past two years, Zhongtongwei Solar and Jiangsu Microconductive Nano Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. have conducted multiple rounds of communication and negotiation on the technical content of the TOPCon project-related cooperation, and conducted all-round exchanges on relevant cooperation matters. In July 2021, the two parties reached a consensus and signed a cooperation agreement. It is expected that by the end of 2022, Tongwei is expected to build a 1GW TOPCon pilot line.

However, for the newly planned 32GW battery capacity of the Meishan base this time, Tongwei has not made it clear which technical route it will adopt. The PERC technology routes that have been built in the Meishan base before are all mature PERC technology routes in the current industry. Regarding the new investment, a relevant person from Tongwei told the media: "The technology route has not yet been determined. ".

2. Will it be a TOPCon or a heterojunction?

Although Topcon and HJT heterojunctions are both possible, from the investment amount announced by Tongwei Co., Ltd., the first phase of 16GW invested 6 billion yuan, which is equivalent to a unit investment of 375 million yuan. The investment cost is much higher than that of PERC, and it cannot be compared with PERC. Topcon or heterojunction matching.

According to the industry survey in 2021, the cost of new PERC production line is about 150 million/GW, TOPCon’s direct new production line is about 230 million/GW, the upgrade from PERC is 60-070 million/GW, and the unit investment of heterojunction production line is as high as 4.3 -450 million/GW. However, Junshi Energy announced in 2021 that the investment in the heterojunction production line in 2022 could reach 350-380 million/GW.

With Tongwei's ability to "carry the handle" in the electromagnetic field (it was Tongwei's investment in heterojunction three years ago that triggered the upsurge of localization of heterojunction equipment, and caused Meyer Burger to withdraw from the Chinese market, directly from Heterojunction equipment manufacturers are transformed into battery manufacturers), Tongwei can completely reduce the investment of heterojunction production lines to 350-380 million yuan/GW.

And this is the unit capacity investment budget of Tongwei's investment in this expansion. From this perspective, it is likely that Tongwei will choose a heterojunction for this expansion.

According to industry analysis, when TOPCon and heterojunctions are expanding aggressively, no matter who wins, PERC will face exit from the market in the next 2-3 years. However, Tongwei has recently expanded its PERC production capacity by 7.5GW in its Meishan base and Jintang base. If it were not for the transformation into TOPCon in the future, these investments would not have time to depreciate. Coupled with Tongwei's existing PERC production capacity, if Tongwei wants to produce TOPCon on a large scale, it can upgrade and convert the existing PERC production capacity anytime and anywhere, and it is not necessary to invest in TOPCon on a large scale.

3. Vote, you decide what Tongwei does

Tongwei Co., Ltd. mentioned that the company attaches great importance to the research and development of solar cell technology, and has made large-scale research and development investment in new battery technology fields such as HJT and TOPCon, and has achieved leading research and development results. In the future, the company will timely introduce new battery technology for large-scale mass production, further promote the development trend of large size and thinning, improve the comprehensive cost performance of new technology products, and continuously consolidate the company's competitiveness in the field of solar cells.

But whether it is heterojunction or TOPCon, battery equipment manufacturers will be the first to benefit. What kind of technology do you think will be the 32GW battery production line invested by Tongwei this time?