Poland Plans To Replace Europe's Largest Coal Plant With 10.7GW Of Solar And Wind Power

BloombergNEF (BNEF) has proposed a potential transition plan for a coal-fired power plant in Belchatow, Poland, arguing that in the best case scenario, 5 GW of solar and 5.7 GW of wind could replace 80% of Belchatow's lignite generation capacity by 2036.

BNEF has studied the feasibility of a gradual transition from lignite generation to a combination of renewables, storage and low-carbon thermal energy at the Belchatow coal power plant in Poland, the largest facility of its kind in Europe and sixth in the world.

BNEF notes that in the best case scenario, 5 GW of solar, 5.7 GW of wind, 1 GW of storage and 0.1 GW of thermal could replace 80% of the original generation capacity - 5.1 GW by 2021 figures.

BNEF's analysis, based on local weather patterns and land use, suggests that this combination would deliver the highest economic value. Photovoltaic power is said to be about 50 percent cheaper than lignite in Poland.

The company said, "BNEF's analysis found that the cheapest electricity mix in Poland can be achieved as long as wind and solar account for the majority of overall generation and more expensive flexible generation technologies are enabled only for hours or days when the output of these two is low."

BNEF also said that the combination of solar and wind has the potential to create better overall generation than either technology alone.

"Solar and wind in the region tend to generate electricity at different times of the year, complementing each other," said Felicia Aminoff, BNEF energy transition analyst and lead author of the report.

The biggest challenge on the solar side is the amount of land required. In order to install a 5 GW utility-scale PV facility, Belchatow will have to reclaim land because the lignite fields will be flooded once mining stops. In a "land-limited" scenario, BNEF estimates that 3.6 GW of solar, 2.9 GW of wind and 1.5 GW of thermal energy could replace 80 percent of the plant's total power generation at 2021 levels.

Lignite power generation in Poland is set to decline by 75% between 2021 and 2030, and this resource could be exhausted by 2036, BNEF said, and the plant would then have to close unless it could be converted to other energy sources.

The report also examines technologies that could be deployed in Belchatow after 2030, including green hydrogen, floating solar, pumped storage and small nuclear reactors (SMRs).

kowiak-Pandera, CEO of Forum Energii, said, "It is important to start building new sources of low carbon emission electricity in the Belchatow region as soon as possible in order to keep energy supply security high and electricity prices low."