Australia's Cumulative PV Installation Potential To Reach 66GW To 98.5GW By 2054

A study recently presented to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) by research firm Green Energy Markets suggests that rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery storage systems dominate Australia's future energy market, with the potential for cumulative installations of PV systems projected to reach 66GW to 98.5GW by 2054.

According to the report, published by Green Energy Markets in December 2023, the installed capacity of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems installed in the country is projected to exceed the current 41GW of coal, gas, and hydro capacity in Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), but varies according to the government's three decarbonization scenarios.

These are Progressive Change, Step Change, and Green Energy Exports. In the incremental change scenario, Australia will achieve a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. "The Step Change program is based on consumer-driven investments to keep the planet's temperature rise below 2°C. The "Green Energy Export" scenario predicts that the Earth's temperature rise will be limited to 1.5°C, requiring rapid electrification, green hydrogen production, and biomethane solutions.

The Distributed Resource Projections - Photovoltaic Systems and Battery Storage Systems report states that in the Progressive Change scenario, Australia will have 66GW of installed photovoltaic system capacity by 2053/2054, higher than the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). This is higher than the Australian Energy Market Operator's (AEMO) cited CSIRO forecast of 48GW for the same period.

Green Energy Markets and CSIRO forecast 98GW and 92GW of PV system capacity to be installed in the world's most popular 'Step Change' and 'Green Energy Export' programs respectively.

Tristan Edis, Head of Analytics and Consulting at Green Energy Markets and co-author of the report said: "These projections show that the installed rooftop PV capacity in Australia (taking into account the degradation of PV modules) is close to or exceeding average electricity demand. This is in addition to the large number of PV plants we are installing, as well as large commercial PV systems of 100 kW or more. For many, the growth in installed rooftop PV capacity seems to exceed the bounds of credibility."

Edis says there are four reasons why installed rooftop PV capacity is exceeding the total electricity demand of residential customers.

Edis said, "Over time, given the 20-year working life of PV modules, the installed capacity of eventually installed PV systems is getting higher and higher, even though the number of new PV plants added annually in the future is projected to be significantly lower than in the past few years."

As installed capacity grows and more power is abandoned, the value of PV systems in the wholesale power market, as well as feed-in tariffs, will decline. Edis said these scenarios depend heavily on the price of residential battery storage systems also declining.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)