What is the outlook for the photovoltaic industry?

According to the Renewable Energy Society's calculations, although the average annual growth rate of photovoltaic power generation in the past 10 years has reached 25% -40%, but the proportion of total national power generation is still small, and photovoltaic power generation is still in the growth stage and is not suitable for large-scale promotion. You can't rush to success, you can't ignore it.

Photovoltaic power generation is still "supplementary"

Photovoltaic power generation started in the 1980s in China. At that time, it was mainly to solve practical application problems, and it was not developed as a key energy source. It was first applied to satellite and harbour buoy lights, and then gradually entered the fields of industry, agriculture, commerce and communication utilities, and has several complete battery and module production enterprises. At the end of the 1990s, the photovoltaic industry developed rapidly, and the old factory renewed and expanded equipment, and its production capacity and actual production volume increased rapidly. The performance of batteries and modules is continuously improved, and the cost of solar cell modules is continuously reduced.

Nevertheless, to date, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has still reached 2.6-2.7 yuan / kWh. If it is to be integrated into the power grid, it must also include corporate profits, power company interests, taxation and other factors. 10 times that of coal power. It is this high power generation cost that has caused photovoltaic power generation to occupy a very small share in national energy long-term planning.

In 2005, the installed capacity of wind power in China was 1.26 million kilowatts, while the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was only 70,000 kilowatts. The recently completed "Renewable Energy Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan" states that by 2020, wind power generation capacity will be 30 million kilowatts, and the target for solar energy, that is, photovoltaic power generation, will only be 2 million kilowatts.

"China's energy policy will focus on energy conservation and efficiency for a long time to come. Coal and oil are still the main energy sources, and then the diversified development of renewable energy sources. At present, photovoltaic power generation is not the main energy source. It is mature. But it is undeniable that the prices of coal and oil are gradually rising, and the price of photovoltaic power generation is gradually decreasing. At a certain period, an intersection point will appear. At that time, photovoltaic power generation has entered a mature development period. .

In fact, in the developed countries in Europe and the United States, a large part of the investment boom in photovoltaic power generation is due to the state subsidies for the use of photovoltaic power generation systems, otherwise, few people are willing to use photovoltaic power generation cost 10 times that of coal power.

The current raw material widely used by solar cell manufacturers is polysilicon. Polysilicon is refined from metallurgical grade silicon with low silicon purity. So far, this refining technology is still in the hands of a few companies in developed countries.

If you invest in the production of silicon materials upstream, you will face high technical, talent and capital barriers.

Shinkotsu Silicon Industry and Luoyang Semiconductor Factory are the major masters of silicon material production technology in China. The Luoyang Semiconductor Plant and the Emei Semiconductor Plant, which is the research and production base of the Xinguang Silicon Industry, have been built for many years, but due to the low technical level, insufficient funds, and small scale, they have not been able to compete with international giants.

In addition, the development of enterprises such as Suntech in Wuxi benefited from the German "100,000 Roofs" project, where there is a large demand for solar equipment components, and our company has grown rapidly. However, according to Meng Xianzheng, Germany is paying more and more attention to the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry. It is expected that in 2007, Germany will achieve self-sufficiency in solar equipment components. This is indeed a challenge for the Chinese photovoltaic power generation industry, which mainly depends on exports.

From this, it is not difficult to see that China's photovoltaic industry is a two-sided industry: raw materials need to be imported, and the main markets are also abroad. Changes in these two markets will directly affect the development of the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry.

Development still needs "trilateral support"

According to statistical data, during the 30-year development of the photovoltaic industry, there is a development curve, that is, each doubling of the scale will reduce the cost by 20%. According to Meng Xianyu's forecast, by 2020, photovoltaic power generation will basically have a cost price that can compete with coal power.

During this period, it is the tripartite forces that can promote the true development of photovoltaic power generation: the government, the market, and society.

(1) The most feasible way to grant subsidies for photovoltaic power generation is to implement the participation of the whole people and share the power grid. That is to say, the cost of 4 yuan per unit of photovoltaic power generation is different from the cost of other power generation prices, and this part of the price is shared by the entire power grid. Photovoltaic power generation only accounts for 1% of the entire grid's power generation. The cost of 4 yuan for this unit of electricity is distributed to 99% of users, and each unit of electricity is only about a few cents. The ultimate beneficiaries of this measure are also the majority of users, who are also willing to pay a few cents more to promote the development of photovoltaic power generation.

In addition, in terms of national policies, we must not only ensure that end users and system vendors benefit, but also benefit the practitioners of China's photovoltaic power generation industry. To achieve this goal, in addition to subsidies, it is more important to formulate strong regulations and policies to promote the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry, such as the purchase price of electricity, subsidies for cost differences in the power sector, and green energy trade policies.

Meng Xianyu learned at a meeting organized by the National People ’s Congress and the Development and Reform Commission that in 2010, China ’s total installed photovoltaic power generation capacity will reach 350,000 kilowatts, of which part of the state investment mainly solves the problem of power construction in rural areas without electricity. The remaining part is operated entirely in accordance with the market, and all units in each place will make reasonable arrangements according to their own circumstances. At present, Shanghai has planned to build a photovoltaic power unit of 0.5 kilowatts. The purchase of green electricity has gradually become a conscious behavior of Shanghai residents.

"The country has begun to implement specific projects for photovoltaic power generation. Guide the market development, investment, and public participation. Driven by policy, this will be a virtuous cycle. As soon as the market develops, it will drive the industry. As soon as the industry expands, the cost will be reduced. Will decrease, and then promote market development. "Meng Xianzhang said.