U.S. community solar market outlook to reach 14GW!

According to Wood Mackenzie and the Community Solar Access Coalition, the cumulative installed capacity of community solar in the U.S. will reach 14GW by 2028.

Installed community solar capacity in the US has been growing since the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, but it fell 6 per cent year-on-year in 2022 and 13 per cent in the first quarter of 2023.

Research firm Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables said this stems from supply chain uncertainty over the past year, as well as grid connection and siting issues that have hampered market growth in key states such as Massachusetts and Maine.

Encore's 3.3MW community solar project on a brownfield site in Vermont

However, the annual installed capacity growth rate will pick up from 2024 and will continue over the next five years. By 2028, the US community solar market will reach a cumulative installed capacity of 14GW, but this forecast does not include new projects that could lead to a significant increase in installed capacity.

Caitlin Connelly, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said, "The continued success of programmes in New York and Illinois and aggressive policy updates in Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey have driven recent growth."

She added that newly proposed plans in California have the potential to account for 20 per cent of Wood Mackenzie's national outlook between 2024-2028.

The study also highlights other factors that could spur the development of community solar in the United States. For purposes of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), community solar developers could qualify for any of the three investment tax credit bonus add-ons set forth in recent IRS guidance, but are most likely to work towards the low-income neighbourhood add-on first.

In addition, the EPA's Solar for All fund, which is part of the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Fund, will provide up to $7 billion for community solar to support the creation and expansion of community solar programmes, with a focus on low-income communities.

Matt Hargarten, Vice President of the Community Solar Access Coalition, said, "These projections do not include the states that have newly passed community solar laws or the billions of dollars in federal grants that states are expected to receive to expand the use of community solar.

If regulators and lawmakers continue to step up their efforts, our projections are superficial when you think about how many people in the U.S. will be able to enjoy the benefits of community solar by the end of this decade."