Singapore to adopt solar prediction model

Scientists have completed a year-long trial of a model that can predict solar irradiation 24 hours in advance. The Energy Market Authority of Singapore now plans to use the solar irradiation prediction model as it has an average failure rate of less than 10% in its one-hour predictions.

The Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore has completed a year-long trial of a solar irradiance prediction model. The model will now be integrated into Singapore's energy management system.

The Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERI) says the experiments have shown that the system can predict solar irradiance for the whole island one hour in advance, with an average error rate of less than 10 per cent.

The model combines real-time irradiation data from sensors installed across Singapore and can integrate satellite imagery, meteorological data and machine learning algorithms. By analysing this information together, regular all-weather irradiance forecasts can be made for periods ranging from 5 minutes to 24 hours.

The trial was supported by the Energy Market Authority of Singapore, the Singapore Meteorological Department and the National Environment Agency of Singapore. The Energy Market Authority of Singapore now plans to integrate the model's solar prediction data into Singapore's energy management system.

"In line with the Singapore Green Plan 2030 and to drive Singapore's energy transition, Singapore plans to deploy at least 2GWp of solar power capacity by 2030," said Seah Joon Yim, Director General of the Energy Market Authority of Singapore. "A reliable solar irradiation forecasting model can enhance Singapore's grid stability and flexibility, while also supporting the deployment of additional solar capacity. This will go a long way in achieving our ambitious solar targets as well as enhancing the stability of our grid."

The Energy Market Authority of Singapore expects to fully integrate the solar forecasting model into its energy management system by 2023. The Solar Energy Institute of Singapore is also expected to scale up the model and apply it to other regions.

"More and more Asian grid operators, including large solar system owners, are demanding solar irradiation forecasting," said Thomas Reindl, Deputy CEO of the Solar Energy Institute of Singapore. "As such, this advanced model has strong potential to be scaled up and commercialised to support the operation of solar farms across the region."