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Gap 45GW Current Global Market PV Supply And Demand Analysis

Wang Guiqing, Executive Director of the Solar Energy Products Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Electromechanical Import and Export, recently analyzed the export situation of China's PV industry in the context of the Sino-US “trade” dispute at the annual PV industry conference.


He said that the major global PV market represented by the United States, India and the European Union has initiated trade friction incidents in China, and the local PV production gap in these major markets has reached 45GW, mainly relying on imports, most of which are exported by Chinese and Chinese companies overseas. Capacity supply.


Other emerging markets such as South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are maturing, and their local production gap is huge. It will become the main export market for PV products in China in the future.




Global market PV supply and demand analysis, data source: CCCME


According to statistics, China's component companies have an overseas production capacity of more than 10 GW. It is estimated that China's mainland component exports will exceed 40 GW in 2018.


Revitalized EU market, 10 GW of component demand per year


Since 2013, the number of components exported from China to the EU has been declining year by year (into the table below), and this year, it has rebounded.




Double-reverse components before and after export to the EU (GW), data source: CCCME


“Before the EU double-reverse, the European market accounted for more than 70% of the global installed PV capacity. In August this year, the European Commission announced that the EU's dual-counter measures against PV products in China were terminated on September 4 due to expected battery and component prices. It will still fall slowly, and the increase in demand for MIP termination will be more obvious after 2019. For China's domestic production capacity, this change will be released.' Wang Guiqing said.


The cancellation of the double-reverse policy will reverse the decline in exports to the EU. The industry expects that 2019 will be a year of revitalization of the EU PV market and will increase year by year thereafter. The policies of the EU countries on PV have also changed. Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain all showed positive attitudes.


Germany plans to achieve a total installed capacity of 51.75GW of photovoltaic power generation in 2020.


The Netherlands plans to have a PV installed capacity of 20 GW in 2035, and Spain plans to achieve 100% renewable electricity in 2050.


According to PV Infolink data, the new installed capacity in the EU will reach 10GW in 2018 and close to 11GW in 2019.




New installed capacity (GW) in the EU from 2017 to 2020, data source: PV Infolink


The EU's domestic production capacity is only about 4GW, the output is 1GW, and the annual installed capacity is more than 10GW. The PV modules are mainly imported.

United States: How to eat 10GW per year under heavy tariffs?


Recently, Sino-US negotiations have attracted global attention. During the negotiations, the White House issued a statement that included an interim measure. President Trump has agreed to keep 10% of the 301 tariffs on Chinese-made $200 million products on January 1 instead of planning. Increase it to 25%.


The 10% tax rate will last for 90 days during the negotiation period. Solar tax inverter products are included in these taxation lists, and solar photovoltaic products have become the affected parties in the trade friction incident over the years.


Since 2011, the United States has launched two double-reverse investigations on Chinese PV products. In May 2017, it initiated a survey on safeguard measures for global photovoltaic cells and components. In August 2017, USTR initiated a 301 investigation. As a result, China's PV products need to face several US tariff stacks: double reverse +201+301.


Under the superposition of heavy tariffs, the number of PV modules exported from China to the United States has dropped sharply. According to the China Electromechanical Import and Export Chamber of Commerce (CCCME), as of September 2018, China's PV modules exported to the United States were only 46MW.


QQ screenshot 20181206085959.jpg


2014-January-September component export quantity (MW), data source: CCCME


On the one hand, it is a strict tariff, on the other hand, it is more than 10GW of photovoltaic installed capacity per year. The US states have different levels of support policies for PV development. For example, California mandates the installation of solar energy in new homes after 2020, and 100% clean energy supply in 2045.


According to Bloomberg New Energy, the number of new PV installations in the United States will exceed 10 GW in 2018, and it will increase year by year, and the market prospects are expected. Although the domestic production capacity of the United States is 7 GW, it is currently only 1 GW. Compared with the new installed capacity of more than 10 GW, the component production gap is huge.


India and emerging markets


Like the United States and the European Union, India will enter 10 GW of new installed “clubs” in 2018. Under the “spurs” of achieving 100 GW of PV installation targets in India in 2022, the Indian PV market will grow further in the next two years.


India's domestic PV module production capacity is about 8GW, but the output is only about 2.5GW. Compared with 10GW of new installed capacity, its demand for components is also huge, mainly by imports. In 2017, China's PV modules exported to India once reached 9.2GW.


However, in January 2017, India initiated a survey on safeguard measures for imported photovoltaic cells and components. In July this year, the final cut was made, and the number of component exports showed a downward trend, down 48.3% year-on-year.


In addition to major PV markets such as the European Union, the United States, and India, the growth of emerging markets such as Mexico, Australia, the Middle East and North Africa has attracted industry attention. For domestic PV companies affected by the “531 New Deal”, the growth of overseas markets is undoubtedly It eased the pressure on the domestic market to decline.