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2019 Global PERC Battery Capacity Will Exceed 90GW

If the P-type and N-type batteries are the junctions of the photovoltaic cell technology, then the cell technology derived from the two battery structures is considered to be the development route for the '100 schools of contention' of photovoltaic cells. 

As an important research link in the photovoltaic industry, battery chip technology has always been one of the core concepts of efficiency reduction. In this issue, Jibang Consulting's new energy research center Jibang New Energy Network EnergyTrend article carries out an inventory of the technical status of the battery segment. Looking forward to the future trend of battery technology. 

By the end of 2018, the efficiency of polycrystalline and single crystal conventional cells is estimated to be 18.7% and 20.4%; the average efficiency of polycrystalline and single crystal PERC cells can reach 20.2% and 21.6%, among which single crystal PERC products are Its cost-effective advantages are the first choice for battery manufacturers to expand their production capacity in the near future. Single crystal PERC batteries are expected to have a 2019% conversion efficiency mass production target in 2019. At present, the polycrystalline PERC battery can be combined with the 'black silicon' technology to introduce polycrystalline diamond wire chips, and the mass production efficiency is expected to exceed 20.0%. 

N-type battery is still dominated by two major technologies, IBC and HJT. At present, the conversion efficiency of low-volume production can reach 24.7% and 23.0%, although the N-type battery itself has the development potential of improving efficiency and carrier lifetime (carrier lifetime). There are many advantages such as high and no light-induced degradation (LID) problems of P-type batteries, but the equipment investment and technical threshold of N-type batteries are high, and the mass production efficiency of P-type PERC batteries is increasing. The resulting N-type battery is still high and low at this stage.

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Figure 1: The output power trend of various types of batteries corresponding to 60-cell components 

2018, the single-chip PERC high-performance component wattage will be improved to 310W. The two N-type high-end batteries IBC (96-inch 5-inch battery) and HJT have high power output, and now have more than 340W and 335W (front) power output.

Technical route and capacity analysis of major domestic battery companies

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2018 N-type battery chip production capacity ratio forecast

For N-type batteries, SunPower is committed to the breakthrough of high efficiency of IBC products. At present, 6-inch silicon wafers have been introduced as the main products, and the battery conversion efficiency is aimed at breaking through 26%. The second-ranked LGE maintains a diverse range of product lines. The overall N-type product line includes HJT (200MW); it also covers N-PERT (600MW) and IBC (600MW) capacity.

 The third place is the day-to-day PV. The day-to-day development of MWT products has formed a capacity of 600MWMWT back contact cell. Currently, MWT products have been put into use by the third batch of runners. It is expected that the Wuxi production base will reach 1GW by the end of 2018; The fourth Panasonic and the fifth GS Solar are HJT battery manufacturers, and the company plans to produce high-efficiency double-sided heterojunction (HDT) components to improve the optimal output of the N-type products. In addition, in June 2018, Aikang Technology started construction of a 5 GW HIT cell project; Zhonglai Co. plans to expand the N-type double-sided TOPCon battery capacity to 4.6 GW by the end of 2019, and this progress is likely to advance.

Capacity and market share of major cell technology

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The trend can clearly feel the maturity of PERC technology and the trend of forming a standardized process, whether it is applied to single or polycrystalline. In contrast, traditional general types of products have shown a decline. In addition to the market's own preference for products, these conditions are also due to the fact that downstream power plants are paying more attention to the Overall Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which has repeatedly proved that the utilization of PERC capacity is sufficient to affect the overall The main product of the P-type market. 

The future development trend of battery technology

The production capacity of N-type battery in the past two years is limited by the advantages of P-type PERC battery capacity and cost performance. The growth rate of N-type battery capacity will slow down from 2018 to 2019, and the market share will enter. During the platform period, the market share of N-type high-efficiency battery chips is expected to exceed 10% by 2021.